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The Institute of Agricultural Market Conjuncture (ICAR) cut its 2026/27 Russian total grain export forecast to 49.5 million tonnes from 52.8 million, and wheat exports to 39.5 million tonnes from 42 million. At the same time it raised its stress-scenario estimates, to 36.5 million tonnes for grain and 30 million for wheat, as shipments continue to track the stress case.
A lower base forecast for Russian wheat exports tightens expected supply to world buyers and supports wheat prices, while the higher stress-case floor signals that the export pace is holding up better than the base case implied.
tksrus.ruИрина ЛазареваNov 5, 2026After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 102 past bullish trade events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.0% to +3.5%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
