
Russian wheat exports are 6.3 mln t since the 2019/20 season began, roughly flat year on year, as some Russian farmers hold grain back for higher prices. Ukraine has exported 4.1 mln t, up 55%, and is capturing demand in North Africa and the Middle East.
Slow Russian selling and Ukrainian gains reshuffle Black Sea wheat flows and keep regional FOB offers firm. Farmer holding behaviour in Russia adds upward price support.
After 431 past bullish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.