
Russian 12.5% protein wheat export prices rose for a second week to $230 per tonne FOB, supported by import demand. Algeria's OAIC bought about 600,000 tonnes at $259-261 c&f in an international tender.
Sovecon cut its 2025/26 Russian wheat export forecast by 0.3 million tonnes to 43.4 million after July-September exports slowed.
Stronger Russian export prices and a lower export forecast tighten Black Sea supply and support global wheat values. Importers may need to pay more for feed wheat in coming weeks.
After 431 past bullish trade events, WHEAT moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.3% to +2.1%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.