
The National Milk Producers Federation sent a letter to the USDA arguing the dairy aid package falls far short of covering losses. It estimates about $1.5bn in lost US dairy revenue in the second half of 2018 from retaliatory tariffs, and asks USDA to reflect this in future trade mitigation payments.
Retaliatory tariffs cut dairy export demand and farm incomes, and inadequate aid may keep herds and milk supply high. The effect on dairy prices and feed demand is indirect but meaningful.
After 49 past bearish trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -4.7% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.