
Industry experts said at the Dairy Experience Forum that growing U.S. dairy exports is essential to restoring prices, since milk output grows about 1.8 to 2 percent a year against roughly 0.8 percent population growth. Former USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack said tariffs cut about $1.2 to $1.3 billion from dairy futures value over six months.
Retaliatory tariffs restrict export outlets for surplus U.S. milk and cheese, so futures are pricing a weaker market through late 2018.
After 49 past bearish trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -4.7% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.