
The dollar turned higher against the Brazilian real on Thursday, with investors watching political news after the central bank kept the Selic rate at 13.75% the previous day. President Lula convened economic advisers and plans a televised address on Sunday to reaffirm fiscal discipline without details.
Fiscal uncertainty and a higher-for-longer rate stance keep the real under pressure, which raises the cost of imported feed ingredients priced in dollars for Brazilian buyers.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.