European natural gas prices rebounded to around €90/MWh from a two-week low of €88 on November 4. EU storage has fallen to 74%, well below the five-year seasonal average of 90%, and Germany's reserves are below 61%.
LNG deliveries from the Persian Gulf remain disrupted by the Iran conflict.
Low storage ahead of winter, a disrupted Gulf LNG supply and competition with Asian buyers support European gas prices, which also feed into fertilizer costs for nitrogen-based feed ingredients.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.