Conab's crop monitoring bulletin, covering October 1 to 21, shows soybean planting accelerating in Mato Grosso and Goiás on restored soil moisture. Excess moisture is damaging winter wheat and rice in Brazil's South.
Faster soybean planting in the Center-West supports a normal harvest outlook. Wheat and rice losses in the South are regional and small, so the price effect is limited.
After 324 past neutral weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.7%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.