
Brazil's Copom held the Selic at 13.75% and ended its easing cycle, as widely priced in. The statement described a more adverse external environment, raised the inflation projection for Q2 2028 from 3.2% to 3.5%, and removed language on the total size of the easing cycle.
A hawkish tone and end of cuts keep Brazilian funding costs high, which can slow domestic livestock and feed demand and influence the real's level against the dollar.
After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.