
Oil prices rose on November 5 after three consecutive sessions of declines, with Brent up about 1.6% to $96.17 a barrel. Analysts said the Republican midterm losses may reduce the odds of escalation in the US-Israeli war against Iran, and JP Morgan said resumed Gulf supply has pushed the market into surplus.
A returning Gulf supply surplus points to lower crude and diesel costs, though analysts see the outlook as uncertain. Lower energy costs ease feed production and freight expenses.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.