Will there be a new moratorium on safe grain exports from Ukraine and Russia?

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Aug 25, 2026Grain exports stall as Ukraine steps up attacks on Russia+1.7%
• Feb 19, 2026Ukraine's grain, iron ore exports hit by Russian strikes on ports this winter | Reuters+1.8%
• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-3.7%
• Jan 9, 2023The Ukraine-Russia Grain Deal: A Success or Failure? | Wilson Center-2.6%
• Nov 27, 2018Ukraine says grain shipments may fall on more Russian naval aggression+1.5%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Feb 19, 2026Ukraine's grain, iron ore exports hit by Russian strikes on ports this winter | Reuters+0.6%
• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-1.0%
• Jan 9, 2023The Ukraine-Russia Grain Deal: A Success or Failure? | Wilson Center+2.0%
• Jun 15, 2026Focus: Russian attacks could cut Ukraine grain exports by a third | Reuters-0.8%
• Sep 15, 2023Why Is Russia Blocking Ukraine's Food Exports?-7.1%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.