
Heavy October rain across Australia's east coast and South Australia fell as winter crops were being harvested, damaging ripe grain. Some milling-quality wheat is being downgraded to feed grade, while southern growers reported record yields.
Downgrading shifts Australian wheat supply toward feed grades, widening the premium between milling and feed wheat. Overall tonnage is less affected, so the price effect is mainly on quality spreads.
After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.