◂ Event Timeline

Mar 31, 2021WEATHERAustralia

Waning La Niña turns winter rainfall prospects to 50:50

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology moved its ENSO outlook from La Niña to inactive as indicators returned to neutral. The winter rainfall outlook for south-eastern Australia is roughly 50:50 with no strong climate signal.

WHY IT MATTERS

A neutral outlook removes a strong driver for Australian winter crop yields, leaving barley and wheat prices to be set by short-term weather and global demand.

AFFECTSBarley◆Wheat (SRW)◆

SOURCE
graincentral.comLiz WellsMar 31, 2021

Price reaction & history

Barley◆neutral

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

Wheat (SRW)◆neutralSO FAR1d +0.5%5d +0.4%20d +4.8%

After 224 past neutral weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and +0.4% over 20.

Apr 10, 2024Winter-crop plant off to patchy start across Australia - Grain Central-0.4%
Mar 10, 2026European, Maghreb winter crops humming along - Grain Central-1.3%
Jan 15, 2019The winter crop that was: West trumps East in 2018 - Grain Central+3.3%
May 19, 2021Australian winter crop around 70pc planted - Grain Central-2.8%
Jan 9, 2020Worldwide Winter Wheat Prospects+1.7%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Barley BARLEY · GP ▸

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Wheat (SRW) WHEAT · GP ▸

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