Natural gas rose 2.8% in an Indian market quote, supported by lower US Lower 48 output of about 110.0 bcfd so far in November versus 113.4 bcfd in October. Storage was 1% above the five-year average, and the EIA projects higher US production and LNG exports in 2026 and 2027.
Goldman Sachs cut its 2027 NYMEX gas forecast to $2.80 from $3.50.
Goldman's lower long-term price outlook and expected supply growth signal a bearish medium-term gas market, which lowers nitrogen fertilizer and ethanol input costs over time. Near-term output declines offer only limited support.
After 59 past bearish macro events, Natural Gas moved a median +1.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -5.0% to +5.2%), and -2.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.