
Crude oil fell more than 4% on Wednesday after the Democratic midterm sweep was read as a step toward ending the Iran war. EIA weekly retail data shows US diesel at $6.292 a gallon on Nov.
2, down only 9 cents over five weeks, while gasoline fell 31 cents.
Retail diesel lags wholesale heating oil futures, which are about 20% below their September peak, so the crude drop may pass through to diesel costs later. For feed buyers, lower diesel reduces freight and processing costs, though the pass-through is uncertain.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.