Citi targets $5,000 gold as a Hormuz reopening could flip the Fed from hikes to cuts

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jul 5, 2022Oil could plummet to the $60s if a recession hits, Citi speculates-3.9%
• Jul 19, 2018Dollar and gold falters as Trump hits fed, stocks drop: markets wrap - MINING.COM+2.5%
• Jun 5, 2019The Fed is ready to cut rates as needed - Mansfield Energy-0.4%
• Jun 24, 2026Oil curve points to near-term glut as Hormuz flows rise | Reuters-5.3%
• Mar 7, 2023Oil and Gold Prices Slump As Powell Signals Further Rate Hikes to Come - Markets Insider-7.1%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Jul 5, 2022Oil could plummet to the $60s if a recession hits, Citi speculates-4.9%
• Jun 24, 2026Oil curve points to near-term glut as Hormuz flows rise | Reuters-6.2%
• Mar 7, 2023Oil and Gold Prices Slump As Powell Signals Further Rate Hikes to Come - Markets Insider-6.7%
• Mar 17, 2020COVID-19: Flattening the curve from ground zero-12.6%
• Jul 1, 2023Oil drops 1.5% as Fed projects more rate hikes this year+5.2%

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Jul 16, 2024Gold sprints to all-time high as Fed rate-cut hopes boost demand+0.5%
• Dec 1, 2023Gold hits record high on bets for March start to Fed rate cuts+0.3%
• Feb 21, 2024Copper, gold to get 'largest immediate' boost from Fed easing, Goldman says | Reuters-0.0%
• Oct 1, 2024What a Fed rate cut could mean for the world+0.9%
• Dec 13, 2023With rate hikes likely done, Fed turns to timing of cuts | Reuters-1.0%