
USDA trade figures show U.S. farm exports rose 7.7% in the first nine months of 2026, reaching $135.7 billion, the highest January-September total since 2022. September exports hit a record $15.2 billion, up 13% year over year.
Soybean exports to China rose 145% while wheat exports fell 16%.
Stronger soybean and corn export flows, led by renewed Chinese buying, tighten US supply and support prices, while weaker wheat shipments add pressure on that market.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.