
MUFG reports that the PBoC raised the FX reserve requirement ratio to 6% from 4%, effective 15 November, locking up about USD24 billion in FX liquidity. MUFG keeps its USD/CNY forecasts at 6.65 by end-2026 and 6.50 by Q3 2027.
The policy tightens onshore dollar liquidity and slows yuan appreciation, which tempers the currency tailwind for Chinese import demand for US and Brazilian feed commodities. The impact on grain prices is modest but tilts toward a weaker yuan.
After 398 past bullish macro events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.