
Commerzbank says China's industrial profit growth slowed to 21.1% year on year in May, down from 24.7% in April. The bank expects June PMIs to slip into contraction and sees weak consumption and investment weighing on the yuan.
It still sees scope for a 10bp PBoC cut in the second half.
A weaker Chinese economy and softer yuan can dampen import demand for feed commodities, though the link to near-term grain prices is indirect.
After 398 past bullish macro events, USDCNY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.