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Brent fell about 8.6% to $94.66 and WTI about 8.3% to $88.08 after the White House tied the midterm losses to the Iran conflict. Trump and Vance both pointed to the war, and Trump said there were no immediate plans to strike Iran, while Houthi claims of attacks on Riyadh went unconfirmed by Saudi authorities.
The sell-off reflects markets pricing a faster end to the Iran war, which would ease energy and fertiliser cost pressure on feed supply chains. Renewed attacks or Houthi action on Saudi infrastructure could quickly reverse the move.
oilprice.comCharles KennedyNov 4, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
