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USDA/FAS forecasts Ukrainian ending stocks of major grains could reach a record 36.1 million tonnes in 2026/27, driven by severe export restrictions from Black Sea shipping risks. Corn exports are seen falling about 54% to 10.2 million tonnes and wheat exports about 38% to 8.7 million tonnes, while production rises to the highest since 2021/22.
Large Ukrainian stocks trapped by shipping disruption weaken export demand for Ukrainian corn and wheat, a bearish factor for world prices offset by reduced Black Sea supply availability. Export losses shift demand toward other origins.
ukragroconsult.comNov 4, 2026After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 406 past neutral report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.5%), and +0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
