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A Farm Progress analysis previews the March 31 USDA Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks reports and reviews how corn and soybean futures moved on those release days in past years. It notes that the size of price changes has grown in recent years and that the direction can differ between crops in the same year.
The release is a scheduled catalyst for corn and soybean price volatility, so buyers should expect larger swings around the report, though the article itself does not signal a directional move.
farmprogress.comBrian Basting, Dave FogelMar 22, 2021After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
