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USDA's August 12 report will include the first survey-based estimate of 2026 corn yields. Historically, the August yield has shifted significantly by harvest, with average changes of about 5 bushels per acre.
Weather patterns are contrasting across regions, which adds to 2026 yield uncertainty.
The August yield survey is a key input for corn and soybean supply expectations, so the report could move prices sharply. Buyers should prepare for volatility around the release.
farmprogress.comBrett MapelAug 1, 2026After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
