
Brent futures fell about $4.50 to $99.07 a barrel and WTI dropped to $92.02 as oil tumbled on hopes of ending the US-Israeli war with Iran. Trump acknowledged the war played a role in Republican losses in the midterm elections and said the US has no immediate plans to strike Iran.
Lower crude reduces diesel and fertilizer cost pressure and weakens the energy-driven support for vegetable oils and biofuel feedstocks, though renewed Gulf attacks could reverse the move quickly.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.