
The front-month ICE Brent contract fell $2.89 to $103.53/bbl on November 4, 2026. Support came from an API-reported 5.3 million bbl drop in US crude stocks and US strikes on an Iranian anti-aircraft facility on Qeshm Island, while Trump said Washington had no immediate plans to strike Iran.
Crude is a key input for diesel and energy costs in feed production and transport, and Hormuz throughput at 56% of pre-conflict levels keeps a supply risk premium in prices. Signs of de-escalation pull prices lower, while renewed strikes push them up.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.