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USDA FAS forecasts Australian 2026/27 wheat output down 11% to 32.0 million tonnes, while barley is projected at a record 17.7 million tonnes. Higher nitrogen fertilizer costs tied to the Middle East conflict and El Niño dryness risk are shifting plantings toward barley.
A smaller Australian wheat crop and a larger barley crop tighten wheat export supply and add barley availability, pressuring wheat prices up and barley prices down relative to each other, while higher fertilizer costs reinforce the shift.
millingmea.comEditor MillingNov 4, 2026After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
