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Wheat, corn and rapeseed futures fell on European exchanges, with Matif December wheat dropping 3.00 euros to 225.25 euros per tonne on Tuesday, about 23 euros below mid-October levels. Russia, Ukraine and the US plan peace talks in Abu Dhabi next week, and IKAR cut its Russian 2026/27 wheat export forecast from 42 to 39.5 million tonnes.
Sovecon estimates Russia shipped only 2.9 million tonnes of wheat in October.
Peace prospects raise expectations that Black Sea exports will resume without restrictions, while Russia's lower export pace and a smaller EU harvest partly offset the bearish pressure. Lower European grain prices reduce feed ingredient costs for buyers.
agrarheute.comAnna-Maria BuchmannNov 4, 2026After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
