
The USDA May class prices show Class IV at $22.32 per cwt, driven by nonfat dry milk and skim milk powder, with Class III up only 10 cents to $16.92. The Class III-IV gap of $5.40 is the widest since 2020, which is expected to prompt depooling.
A wide Class III-IV spread shifts the value of milk toward protein-driven uses and can change pooling and milk flows. Strength in powder prices supports dryer returns, while Class III stays weak.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.