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Trump recently threatened to import potash from Belarus, a move aimed at pressuring Canada, a major potash supplier to the US. Reuters reports that about 30 per cent of global fertiliser trade moves through the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran is slowing or blocking shipping during the US-Iran war.
Both developments have pushed fertiliser prices higher.
Disruption at Hormuz and trade threats against potash and nitrogen supply tighten fertiliser availability, raising input costs for grain and feed producers. Higher urea and potash prices feed into farm margins and ultimately feed ingredient costs.
materialsindustry.comNov 3, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
