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Brazilian assets closed the session at their worst levels of 2026, with the dollar up 0.79% to R$5.4871, its highest close since late December, and the Ibovespa down 1.42% to 165,529 points, a bear market decline of 20.82% from October highs. The moves followed a proposal by economist André Lara Resende to cut the Selic rate to 7.5% within 12 months, which PT members publicly endorsed, raising fears of heterodox policy in Lula's new term.
A weaker real raises the local-currency cost of imported feed inputs and can encourage Brazilian exporters to sell soybeans and corn more aggressively, adding pressure on global soy meal and corn prices. Rising domestic rate and inflation risk also tightens credit for Brazilian feed buyers.
valor.globo.comGabriel Roca, Gabriel Caldeira, Bruna Furlani, Maria Fernanda SalinetNov 4, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
After 117 past bearish macro events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -2.5% to +1.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
