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India's government capped ethanol production from surplus FCI rice at 3.24 billion litres over the first three quarters of the 2026-27 supply year, and set a 1.6 billion litre annual ceiling on ethanol from damaged foodgrains. Together these cover about 44% of an 11 billion-litre ethanol tender, after most sugarcane feedstocks were excluded from procurement.
The shift pushes ethanol demand toward maize, estimated at 16 million tonnes next year versus about 13 million tonnes now.
Losing rice and sugarcane feedstocks shifts ethanol demand onto maize, which competes with poultry and dairy feed users and starch makers. Expect firmer Indian corn prices and weaker rice demand from the ethanol channel.
hindustantimes.comPallavi SinghalNov 4, 2026After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 100 past bearish policy events, Rough Rice moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
