
The US Department of Commerce kept a 20.04% countervailable subsidy rate on Moroccan phosphate fertilisers after a five-year review of the 2021 countervailing duty order. The notice, published in the Federal Register on November 3, covers OCP S.A. and all other Moroccan producers.
Temporary duty-free imports from Morocco authorised under a June emergency proclamation remain in effect.
Because the June emergency relief still allows duty-free phosphate imports, the decision has limited immediate effect on US supply. It does signal that duties could return, which could tighten US phosphate supply and support DAP prices over time.
After 29 past neutral policy events, DAP moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.3%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.