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Brent traded near $104.27 in early Asian hours on November 4, after plunging 7.6% on November 3 to its steepest fall in more than three months. Washington and Tehran had signalled willingness to talk, but Iran's security chief called the US response not satisfactory.
Citi expects the conflict to end by late 2026 or early 2027.
Oil is swinging on peace-talk headlines, with the Hormuz supply risk still unresolved. Price direction depends on whether diplomacy holds, so the market remains choppy.
cnbctv18.comCNBCTV18.comNov 4, 2026After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
