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Chicago December wheat is trading below its major moving averages with no upside momentum despite oversold conditions. Russian officials confirmed they will join three-way peace talks with Ukraine and the US in Abu Dhabi on November 10-11, the same day as the WASDE release.
Market expects possible resumption of Black Sea exports if talks progress, which would add supply and pressure wheat and corn prices. The analyst expects the talks to yield little, so the price reaction may be limited.
barchart.comSean LuskNov 3, 2026After 80 past bearish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 87 past bearish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
