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Morgan Stanley expects the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye to begin cutting rates in the fourth quarter of 2026 and keeps its year-end policy rate forecast at 35 percent. The bank cited Middle East tensions and higher energy prices as risks to disinflation.
It also flagged lira pressure and strong domestic demand as possible reasons to delay easing.
Persistently high oil prices raise Turkey's import costs and inflation, which could keep monetary policy tight for longer. For feed buyers, tight credit and a weaker lira raise the cost of imported feed ingredients priced in dollars.
ilkha.comECONOMYNov 4, 2026Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 102 past neutral macro events, WTI moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
