ADM raised its 2026 adjusted earnings guidance to $5.50-$5.80 per share from $5.15-$5.60 after third-quarter profit grew in every segment. Crushing profit jumped by about $298 million year over year, which the company attributed to federal renewable volume rules and stronger biofuel demand for soybean oil.
ADM also trimmed its 2026 capital spending to $1.2-$1.3 billion.
Renewable volume obligations are pulling soybean oil into biofuel use, which supports soybean oil prices and crush margins. Higher crush activity also increases meal output, which can weigh on soybean meal prices for feed buyers.
After 842 past bullish policy events, SBO moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 223 past bearish policy events, SBM moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.