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The IEA's Global Gas Security Review projects global LNG supply to fall about 3%, or nearly 20 bcm, in 2026, the steepest annual drop on record. Middle Eastern gas output is expected to fall 18% as Strait of Hormuz disruptions persist, partly offset by growth in North American and African output.
Loss of Gulf LNG keeps global gas tight and supports energy-linked costs for fertilizer and processing, with a knock-on to nitrogen supply. Non-Gulf growth offsets only part of the shortfall, so the price effect is supportive.
forbesmiddleeast.comKhadijah Khogeer, Said Khaled Aly MohamedNov 3, 2026After 132 past bullish geopolitics events, NATGAS moved a median +3.1% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -1.9% to +9.2%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 203 past bullish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
