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Agreste, the French Ministry of Agriculture's statistics service, estimates fertilizer deliveries at the start of the 2026-2027 season are below the same period last year, with phosphate deliveries down about 30%, potash down 17%, and nitrogen down 4%. Average prices for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers are up 18.6% and 13.5% year on year, while potash prices are roughly flat.
Higher fertilizer costs tied to the Middle East conflict and European gas prices squeeze farm margins and can reduce future crop input use, supporting grain and feed price expectations over time.
lafranceagricole.frNov 3, 2026After 76 past bullish report events, UREA moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
