
The dollar rose modestly on Tuesday as investors weighed uncertainty over a possible US-Iran deal and the outcome of US midterm elections. Iran said the sides remain far from ending their war, while Qatar pushed mediation efforts.
The Australian dollar and Chinese yuan weakened after recent central bank policy moves.
Currency moves tied to Middle East diplomacy and oil prices affect import costs for feed buyers and the competitiveness of Australian and Chinese demand, with a softer dollar potentially supporting US commodity prices.
After 102 past neutral macro events, WTI moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -3.3% to +2.5%), and +1.8% over 20.
After 54 past neutral macro events, BRENT moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -2.8% to +2.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 359 past neutral macro events, DXY moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -0.4% to +0.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.