Russian grain exports through Black and Azov seas fall 16-fold

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, WHEAT moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.

• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-3.7%
• Jul 9, 2020Ukrainian farmers and grain exports hit hard by Russian blockade of Black Sea ports | Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation+0.7%
• Oct 1, 2026War Throttles Black Sea Grain Exports, Threatening Food Supplies-2.9%
• Jul 31, 2026EXCLUSIVE: Russian grain lobby says Kyiv's attacks threaten Black Sea exports, global food security | Reuters-1.0%
• Jun 15, 2026Focus: Russian attacks could cut Ukraine grain exports by a third | Reuters+3.6%

After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, CORN moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Mar 17, 2023Russia Still Slow-Walking Ukraine Food Exports in Black Sea Grain Deal-1.0%
• Jul 9, 2020Ukrainian farmers and grain exports hit hard by Russian blockade of Black Sea ports | Ukrainian Agrarian Confederation-5.2%
• Oct 1, 2026War Throttles Black Sea Grain Exports, Threatening Food Supplies-1.2%
• Jun 15, 2026Focus: Russian attacks could cut Ukraine grain exports by a third | Reuters-0.8%
• Jan 8, 2026Ukraine Grain Exports Drop 16% in December as Russian Strikes Hit Ports - Bloomberg-3.4%