
The US dollar opened higher against the Brazilian real on November 3, trading at R$5.48 by 10:20 and reaching R$5.50 later in the morning, up about 1.15%. Market sentiment soured after the defeat of Flávio Bolsonaro in the presidential election, and the central bank's Focus survey showed higher expectations for inflation, interest rates and the dollar, with lower growth forecasts.
A weaker real raises the local-currency cost of imported feed ingredients and makes Brazilian soybean meal and corn exports more competitive on the world market. Investors are also watching the Copom meeting, where the Selic rate of 13.75% is expected to be held.
After 301 past bullish macro events, USDBRL moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.