
A Cerasa Experience study says a very strong El Niño could cut soybean productivity in at least 13 Brazilian states, led by Mato Grosso and Goiás, with output falling to about 163 million tonnes from 180 million under neutral conditions. Rio Grande do Sul could gain, and planted area is expected to rise 2%.
A projected 10% drop in Brazilian soybean output would tighten global soybean and meal supply, supporting soybean meal prices and raising feed costs for livestock buyers.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, SOY moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 453 past bullish weather events, SBM moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.7%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.