
Rabi crop sowing in India has fallen 46 per cent behind last year's pace as of October 30, with wheat planting barely started. The shortfall follows a 13 per cent deficit in the June-September monsoon, which left too little soil moisture and irrigation water.
A late or reduced Indian wheat planting raises the risk of lower harvest volumes in March-April, which could tighten domestic supply and support import demand and world wheat prices.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.