◂ Event Timeline

Nov 2, 2026MACROUS

US midterms could raise the dollar and interest rates in Brazil

US midterm elections on November 3 will renew Congress, with Democrats projected to win the House and hold a narrow Senate edge. Analysts say the result could add pressure on the real and Brazilian futures rates ahead of the Copom decision.

WHY IT MATTERS

A stronger US dollar and higher Brazilian rates would weigh on the real, affecting the cost of Brazilian feed inputs and export competitiveness.

AFFECTSBrazilian Real (BRL per USD)▲

SOURCE
tvsimbrasil.com.brRedação TV Sim BrasilNov 2, 2026

Price reaction & history

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)▲bullish

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

Sep 8, 2023Why the US Fed's interest rate pause is a win for dollar bulls | The National-2.2%
Sep 23, 2024Dollar rises more than 1% at the start of a week marked by inflation data in Brazil and the US | Brasil 247-1.1%
Nov 19, 2025Dollar rises in the Brazilian market following international movement | Brasil 247+1.3%
May 22, 2018brazil-currency-weakness-halts-the-interest-rate-cuts+0.5%
Nov 12, 2024Brazil’s real weakens, interest rates climb under Trump effect-0.6%

Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.

Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) USDBRL · GP ▸

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