
Brent and WTI ticked higher on November 3 after reports of a US strike on Iran's Qeshm Island, following a sharp prior-session drop when Brent settled at $104.77. The US described the operation as defensive, aimed at preventing Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil is the main cost driver for diesel and freight that shape feed ingredient landed costs. Continued Hormuz disruption keeps upward pressure on energy and logistics costs, while any peace deal would pull prices lower.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.