The USDA Cold Storage report put September 30 butter inventory at 295.7 million pounds, down 5.0% from August but up 16.5% from a year earlier. Total cheese stocks were 1.428 billion pounds, down 0.9% month on month and up 2.4% year on year.
August fluid milk sales were flat year on year at 3.5 billion pounds, with whole milk sales up 4.5%.
Ample cold-storage butter and cheese stocks weigh on dairy values, while tight supplies of young Cheddar for CME spot delivery support spot cheese prices. Analysts called the report neutral for the market, so the price impact on milk for feed buyers is limited.
After 136 past neutral report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -0.7% to +0.5%), and -0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.