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The USDA raised its 2026/27 US oats production forecast to 69 million bushels, up 1% from the prior estimate, on a 4% rise in average yield to 75.3 bushels per acre. Harvested area fell 3% to about 1 million acres, with sharp declines in Texas, Minnesota, South Dakota and Kansas offset by gains in North Dakota and Idaho.
Total supply was lifted by 1 million bushels to 173 million and ending stocks rose to 33 million bushels.
A larger US oats crop and higher ending stocks add to domestic supply for feed users, which is mildly bearish for oat prices. The effect is modest given the small size of the revision.
insights.tridge.comNov 2, 2026After 72 past bearish report events, Oats moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -3.7% to +3.8%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
