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NOAA's Climate Prediction Center kept its El Niño Advisory on 2 November 2026, reporting weekly sea surface temperature departures of 2.5 °C in Niño 3.4 and 4.6 °C in Niño 1+2. It puts the chance of a strong-to-very strong event through January–March 2027 above 83%.
A strengthening El Niño raises the odds of drought in Australia, Southeast Asia and southern Africa and of wetter conditions in South America's south, which can tighten grain, oilseed and palm supplies and lift feed prices.
elnino.newsNov 2, 2026After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
