Typhoons Sarika and Haima struck central and northern Luzon in October 2016, affecting about 400,000 hectares of paddy, maize and high-value crops. Estimated agricultural damage is about USD 234 million, with rice hit hardest, though the overall cereal impact is expected to be limited.
Philippine cereal import requirements remain high, supporting import demand for rice and maize. Stable domestic rice prices limit the price impact.
After 179 past bullish weather events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.5%), and +2.2% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.