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The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.6% early on Tuesday as energy stocks fell about 3% after oil dropped below US$105 on signals from Iran's supreme leader that he was open to diplomacy. Qantas gained 5.7% on the lower fuel price.
The Reserve Bank of Australia was widely expected to lift its cash rate to an 18-year high later that day.
Lower crude prices ease fuel and energy input costs for transport and industry, but they also reduce the risk premium in energy markets. Diplomacy-driven declines in oil can reverse quickly if the Iran conflict flares up again.
afr.comGeorgie Preston, Maxim ShanahanNov 2, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
